解读生态系统服务价值的不确定性:专注于生态特征的创新协议
Yanzhong Yao1, Changgeng Jia2, Yiting Xue3
1College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 20, 2025
概括
生态特征对生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 的评估有重大影响. 了解这些不确定性对于有效的长期生态系统管理和保护战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态系统服务估值
- 环境经济学
- 生态建模
背景情况:
- 评估生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 正在增长,但生态特征的不确定性仍未得到充分探索.
- 有限的研究集中在量化生态特征对ESV评估不确定性的影响上.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个新的协议,以捕捉来自中国关键生态特征的ESV评估中的不确定性 (2000-2020年).
- 将不确定性分析纳入ESV评估框架,并分析生态特征的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个新的协议来量化与生态特征相关的ESV不确定性.
- 在ESV评估框架内应用不确定性分析.
- 分析了2000年至2020年间中国的数据.
主要成果:
- 尽管考虑了生态特征,但ESV的评估仍然强,从3716.27亿元人民币到3772.00亿元人民币.
- 在第一十年,ESV的不确定性下降了1.69%,但在第二十年增加了5.64%.
- 与东部地区相比,中国西部的ESV不确定性更高.
结论:
- 生态特征,特别是净初级生产率,在ESV评估中显著带来不确定性.
- 由于生态特征的影响,核心生态系统服务 (物质产品,水文/气候调节,土壤保留) 具有很高的不确定性.
- 这些发现为将生态特征纳入长期生态系统管理实践提供了基础.
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