对登革热流行病的分数顺序非线性SIR-SI模型进行数值研究
Lalchand Verma1,2, Ramakanta Meher2, Omid Nikan3
1Department of Applied Sciences and Humanities, Panipat Institute of Engineering and Technology, Samalkha, Panipat, Haryana, 132102, India.
这项研究引入了分数顺序的SIR-SI模型来分析人类和蚊子的登革热传播动态. 分数模型揭示了重要的记忆效应,增强了疾病控制策略.
科学领域:
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 分数微积分的计算.
背景情况:
- 登革热是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏捕捉疾病传播的长期依赖性的能力.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一种新的小数序SIR-SI登革热流行模型.
- 研究记忆效应对登革热传播动态的影响.
- 评估平衡点的稳定性,并推导出基本的复制数.
主要方法:
- 使用非线性微分方程制定一个结合的SIR-SI模型.
- 纳入分数顺序导数 (卡普托感) 来建模记忆效应.
- 分析无疾病和特有平衡点的稳定性.
- 基本复制数的导出和灵敏度分析.
- 使用双步拉格朗日多项式方法进行数值模拟.
主要成果:
- 分数顺序模型为登革热传播动态提供了更深入的见解.
- 通过分数导数捕捉到的记忆效应被证明是显著的.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响疾病传播的关键参数.
- 两步拉格朗日多项式方法有效模拟了分数模型.
结论:
- 分数计算为理解复杂的流行病动态提供了有价值的框架.
- 这项研究强调了将记忆效应纳入疾病建模的重要性.
- 这些发现可以为制定更有效的登革热控制策略提供信息.
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