由高BMI造成的全球癌症负担 (1990-2031):基于GBD和门德尔随机化的多维分析
Xianglin Zhu1,2, Yushuai Mi1, Lang Wang1,2
1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Second Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
Frontiers in nutrition
|August 21, 2025
概括
身体质量指数 (BMI) 高与11种癌症有关,全球癌症死亡率和受残疾调整的寿命年数 (DALYs) 显著增加. 未来的趋势表明大多数与肥胖相关的癌症的负担是稳定的或不断增加的.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 遗传学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肥胖是一个重大的全球公共卫生问题.
- 与肥胖相关的健康问题,特别是癌症, 需要紧急关注.
研究的目的:
- 分析身体质量指数 (BMI) 与12种癌症之间的关系.
- 根据地区,性别和年龄来研究因高BMI而导致的癌症负担的差异.
- 预测与肥胖相关的癌症负担的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用孟德尔随机化 (MR) 来研究BMI与癌症的关联.
- 分析了来自全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库的流行病学数据.
- 自动回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型预测了未来的癌症趋势.
主要成果:
- 高BMI在2021年导致超过35万例癌症死亡和880万例DALY,这是自1990年以来的大幅增加.
- 结肠癌,直肠癌和肝癌的发病率最高,甲状腺癌的发病率最低.
- 发现高BMI与11种癌症之间的因果关系,女性和50-79岁年龄组的癌症负担较高.
结论:
- 体重指数升高与11种癌症的风险增加有关.
- 与高BMI相关的癌症负担在过去30年里有所上升, 人口和地区差异很大.
- 有针对性的预防和健康促进策略对于减轻与肥胖有关的癌症风险至关重要.
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