流行病学期刊中的P值分布趋势:统计,P曲线和模拟研究
Sarah F Ackley1, Ryan M Andrews2, Christopher Seaman3
1Department of Epidemiology, Brown University, Providence, RI.
American journal of epidemiology
|August 21, 2025
概括
流行病学家正在从P值转向信心区间. 分析显示P值有所下降,但这很可能是由于增加的统计能力,而不是减少P黑客.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 对零假设的统计学意义测试,P黑客和流行病学中的可重复性存在担忧.
- 流行病学家建议报告置信区间,减少对P值的依赖.
研究的目的:
- 研究是否减少P值的努力改变了它们在流行病学研究中的分布.
- 在主要流行病学期刊中分析P值分布的趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用ChatGPT的4o模型,从2000年至2024年期间在四个主要流行病学期刊上发表的21,332个摘要中取出P值 (N=25,288).
- 根据估计和置信区间计算的P值.
- 评估了随时间推移的趋势,并适应了预期的P值分布,模拟了具有和没有统计功率变化的场景.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2024年,平均P值有所下降.
- 仅在0.05显著值以下的P值比例也有所下降.
- 模型匹配表明在研究期间的统计能力增加.
结论:
- 观察到的P值分布趋势与增加的统计能力相一致,而不是P黑客的减少.
- 虽然P值在0.05值附近的频率有所下降,但这归因于增强的统计能力.
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