墨西哥老龄化人口的健康结果的动态微模拟
Hanke Heun-Johnson1,2, Tadeja Gracner3,4, Bryan Tysinger1,2
1Leonard D. Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
The Gerontologist
|August 21, 2025
概括
墨西哥
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 卫生经济与政策建模
- 流行病学和生物统计学
背景情况:
- 由于人口老龄化和医疗保健的差距, 墨西哥面临着重大的卫生政策挑战.
- 国家代表性的纵向调查对于预测未来的医疗需求至关重要.
- 墨西哥未来老年人模型 (MFOAM) 是为墨西哥老龄化人口开发的一种动态微模拟模型.
研究的目的:
- 验证墨西哥未来老年人模型 (MFOAM) 以预测墨西哥老龄化人口的健康结果.
- 用墨西哥健康与衰老研究 (MHAS) 的纵向数据来开发模型.
- 将美国的"未来老年人模式"适应墨西哥环境.
主要方法:
- 预测终身健康结果,风险因素,功能限制和死亡率.
- 内部验证包括将模拟结果与MHAS的个人和队列数据进行比较.
- 外部验证对国家健康和营养调查 (ENSANUT) (2012-2021) 的数据进行了评估.
主要成果:
- 在内部和外部验证中,MFOAM表现出强的表现.
- 人口预测显示,墨西哥的51岁以上人口将在2018年至2051年之间几乎翻一番.
- 预计高血压,糖尿病,呼吸系统疾病,心肌梗塞,中风和癌症等慢性疾病的患病率将增加,功能限制也将增加.
结论:
- 在墨西哥,MFOAM提供了可靠的人口预测到2051年.
- 协调变量有助于进行跨国比较,并利用健康和经济数据扩展模型.
- 这些预测对于墨西哥的健康政策规划和医疗保健战略至关重要.
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