发展援助减少对马拉维人口健康的潜在影响:一项建模研究
Margherita Molaro1, Paul Revill2, Martin Chalkley2
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
马拉维的医疗援助下降可能会使因残疾而调整的寿命年数增加15.8%, 迫切需要采取行动来解决对人口健康的风险.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 健康经济学
- 公共卫生建模
背景情况:
- 马拉维主要依赖于卫生发展援助 (DAH).
- 作为GDP的一小部分的DAH预计下降对医疗保健服务构成重大风险.
- 紧急估计DAH对健康预测的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计DAH下降对马拉维卫生系统能力和人口健康结果的影响.
- 根据各种DAH情景,在2019年至2040年期间预测健康后果.
- 提供有关未来卫生支出政策决策的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用马拉维特定的个人"Thanzi La Onse" (TLO) 模式.
- 以人力资源为代表的模拟卫生系统能力.
- 根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs) 来衡量人口健康结果.
主要成果:
- 预测DAH的下降可能会使DALY增加7.0%至15.8%,这可能会扭转过去的健康收益.
- 预计非传染性疾病负担将随着医疗支出增长而增加.
- 增加医疗支出改善了结果,
结论:
- 马拉维人口健康面临重大风险.
- 国内和国际当局必须应对预期的医疗资金趋势.
- 需要采取积极的措施来减轻减少的DAH对健康的影响.
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