系统变革的秘:无家可归者服务中的预测建模和街头官僚主义
Curtis Smith1, Moinak Bhaduri2
1Sociology Department, Bentley University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PloS one
|August 21, 2025
概括
对于无家可归者来说, 成功的制度变革取决于实践和关系变化, 赋予前线工作者权力是持续取得积极成果的关键.
科学领域:
- 社会科学
- 公共政策
- 组织行为
背景情况:
- 无家可归是一个复杂的社会问题,
- 街头层面的官僚主义影响了服务供应和弱势群体的结果.
- 现有的系统变化模型缺乏定量验证和预测能力.
研究的目的:
- 分析解决无家可归问题的成功制度变革的重要组成部分.
- 通过数学预测模型验证和完善系统变化的理论模型.
- 确定社会服务机构变革的关键驱动因素和障碍.
主要方法:
- 我们利用了迈克尔·利普斯基的街头官僚主义理论.
- 实施"100天挑战"模式,赋予前线工作者权力.
- 应用量化分析,包括条件概率和变化点分析.
- 分析了美国各个地区的无家可归案例.
主要成果:
- 证实了变革的层次结构:变革性,关系性/精神性,数据驱动的分享.
- 预测变化的相关性保证 (例如,关系变化预测心理变化50%的概率).
- 发现人力不足是打击无家可归问题的重要原因.
- 发现实践和关系的变化比转型变化的资源更有影响力.
结论:
- 变革性系统变化最有效的驱动因素是实践和关系的变化.
- 赋予前线工作者的权力和确保他们的维持对于持续的成功至关重要.
- 数学建模为理解和优化系统变化提供了数据驱动的方法.
- 政策和实践应优先考虑关系和运营方面的改进以及资源分配.
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