伊朗1962年至2019年的极端降水事件的概率变化
1Department of Climatology, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran; Department of Zrebar Lake Environmental Research, Kurdistan Studies Institute, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
The Science of the total environment
|August 21, 2025
概括
伊朗的极端降雨事件越来越多,特别是大雨,对水资源管理构成风险. 这项研究分析了1962年至2019年的趋势,发现不同地区降雨概率发生了显著变化.
科学领域:
- 气候学
- 水文学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖加剧洪水风险并改变极端降雨模式.
- 了解极端降水概率的变化对于区域水资源管理和洪水控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析伊朗各地极端降水事件的概率和趋势.
- 评估气候变化对降雨强度和频率的影响.
主要方法:
- 伊朗1962年至2019年的每日降水数据.
- 应用了玛分布来模拟降水事件 (≥0.1 mm).
- 使用修改的曼-肯德尔测试来检测降水参数和概率的趋势.
主要成果:
- 玛分布的形状参数 (α) 普遍下降,而尺度参数 (β) 在全国范围内增加.
- 在每日降水强度≥5,≥10,≥15和≥20毫米的概率中观察到积极的趋势,特别是在伊朗西部和西南部.
- 在大多数西部地区,每日降水强度<5毫米的可能性呈负面趋势.
结论:
- 伊朗正经历着更强烈的降雨事件的重大转变.
- 这些发现为伊朗和全球的水资源规划和适应战略提供了关键的见解.
- 这项研究强调需要采取主动措施来管理与降雨模式变化相关的洪水风险.
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