东南亚农业扩张的时空动态和驱动机制
Qinhua Ke1, Shan Xu1, Shanshan Zong1
1College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 21, 2025
概括
农业扩张和森林丧失是东南亚的主要威胁. 这项研究揭示了农业土地规模是主要的驱动因素,
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 环境科学
- 农业科学
背景情况:
- 热带生态系统面临着农业扩张和森林丧失的持续威胁.
- 东南亚的长期,省级AEFL动态和驱动因素尚不清楚.
- 东南亚是农业森林砍伐的全球热点.
研究的目的:
- 探索东南亚在三十年 (1992-2022) 的AEFL动态.
- 确定森林向农业转型的关键驱动力.
- 为平衡农业生产力和森林保护制定有针对性的战略.
主要方法:
- 使用可解释的机器学习技术.
- 分析了AEFL使用12个因素,包括生物物理条件,社会经济发展和农业土地状况.
- 分析了三个不同十年的数据:1992-2002,2002-2012年和2012-2022年.
主要成果:
- 在接下来的几十年里,AEFL的面积分别为6.28万公,7.73万公和5.95万公.
- 印度尼西亚和马来西亚的转换率最高; 区域趋势有所不同.
- 农业土地规模是主要的驱动因素,贡献率从24.80%增加到44.13%.
结论:
- 土地碎片化,气候,土壤质量和农业强化对AEFL产生了重大影响.
- 高降水和肥沃土壤地区更容易受到影响;强化减轻了损失.
- 这些发现支持针对空间的可持续发展和保护政策.
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