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气候极端对加勒比地区登革热爆发风险的复合和级联影响:基于影响的模型框架,具有长期延迟和短时间延迟的相互作用
Chloe Fletcher1, Giovenale Moirano2, Tilly Alcayna3
1Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Medicine & Life Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|August 21, 2025
概括
一个新的模型通过分析温度和降雨模式预测巴巴多斯的登革热爆发. 这种工具有助于预测疾病风险,改善对气候敏感传染病的公共卫生准备.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与公共卫生
- 流行病学和气候建模
背景情况:
- 加勒比小岛屿发展中国家面临与气候有关的传染病爆发的增加.
- 现有的预测工具不足以应对疾病风险的复合和级联气候影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个基于影响的模型框架,预测气候敏感的传染病疫情将提前三个月发生.
- 研究温度和标准降水指数 (SPI) 对巴巴多斯登革热爆发风险的综合影响.
主要方法:
- 在1999年至2022年期间使用贝叶斯层次框架来建模登革热发病率.
- 评估了长延迟和短延迟水气预测因素与登革热病例之间的相互作用.
- 在2024年T20世界杯上试用了一种登革热预警系统.
主要成果:
- 延迟温度异常,SPI-6 (5个月延迟) 和SPI-6 (1个月延迟) 的三方相互作用最好预测登革热风险.
- 长时间的干旱,中期的炎热和短时间的潮湿都大大增加了登革热的风险.
- 在交叉验证过程中,该模型实现了81%的真实阳性率和29%的假阳性率.
结论:
- 基于影响的模型有效地捕捉了对登革热风险的复合和级联气候影响.
- 该框架正被整合到国家登革热预警系统中,
- 该方法对其他气候敏感疾病和地区的适用性需要进一步研究.
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