极端热量对全球经济的影响的空间过程建模:多尺度的时空方法
Guanpeng Dong1, Hang Zhang2, Yansui Liu3
1Climate Change and Carbon Neutrality Lab, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China; Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China; Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China.
Science bulletin
|August 21, 2025
概括
极端高温对全球经济发展产生重大影响. 这项研究揭示了空间效应的计算表明,1°C的热量增加可能导致人均GDP的2.54%,高于以前的估计.
科学领域:
- 气候经济学
- 空间经济学
- 可持续的发展
背景情况:
- 极端炎热事件的频率,强度和范围正在增加,威胁着全球经济发展.
- 目前的气候经济学模型低估了极端高温带来的经济损失,
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的多尺度时空模型来评估极端高温的经济影响.
- 提供第一次对极端高温对全球经济生产及其空间依赖性的定量分析.
主要方法:
- 将多层次建模与空间统计结合起来.
- 贝叶斯马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟算法的开发.
- 对尺度依赖的空间过程和传播效应的分析.
主要成果:
- 输出链接造成的经济损失最初缓慢下降,然后随着连接的增加而急剧下降.
- 在考虑空间效应时,极端热强度增加1°C会导致年均人均GDP损失2.54%.
- 极端高温的经济影响在空间上是异质的,在寒冷的地区产生积极影响,在温暖的地区产生负面影响.
结论:
- 这种模型可以更准确地评估气候变化对经济的影响.
- 空间传播效应显著扩大了极端热量的经济损失.
- 了解这些空间动态对于有效的气候变化适应和减缓战略至关重要.
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