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在糖尿病患者中开发和验证冠状动脉病预测模型:基于2011-2020年NHANES数据库的研究
Mengxue Wang1, Wenjing Zhang1, Jiaqi Li1
1Department of Cardiovascular, Guang'anmen Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
BMC cardiovascular disorders
|August 21, 2025
概括
在糖尿病患者中,一种新型的诺米图模型准确地预测了冠心病 (CHD) 的风险. 这种工具有助于早期诊断和个性化干预心脏病风险的糖尿病患者.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学
- 内分泌学
- 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 冠心病 (CHD) 对糖尿病患者构成重大风险.
- 早期诊断和干预对于治疗并发性DM和CHD至关重要.
- 预测模型可以帮助风险分层和个性化患者护理.
研究的目的:
- 分析糖尿病患者心脏病的危险因素.
- 开发和验证DM相关的CHD的预测名录模型.
- 提供早期诊断和个性化干预策略的工具.
主要方法:
- 使用了2,141名糖尿病患者的数据 (2011-2020年NHANES).
- 用于风险因素选择的最低绝对收缩和选择运营商 (Lasso) 回归.
- 开发并验证了使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析的多变量逻辑回归型号.
主要成果:
- 确定了7个主要预测因素:年龄,性别,高血压,体重调整腰部指数,中性粒细胞,血小板和甘油三.
- 诺米图的AUC值为0. 758 (训练组) 和0. 747 (验证组).
- 该模型显示了令人满意的预测性能,校准和临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型有效预测糖尿病患者的心脏病风险.
- 该模型显示中等,临床上有用的区分和良好的校准.
- 这种工具为早期诊断和个性化干预提供了科学指导,有可能降低DM患者心血管疾病的风险.
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