全球一氧化碳中毒模式和趋势:使用结合点回归和ARIMA建模的综合时空分析,1990-2021年
Weiguang Wang1, Yongai Ling1, Xianwei Xiong1
1Emergency Department, People's Hospital of Anji, Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China.
PloS one
|August 22, 2025
概括
全球一氧化碳中毒死亡人数正在下降, 适度发达国家和男性需要有针对性的预防策略来减少全球CO中毒负担.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 流行病学
- 全球健康
背景情况:
- 一氧化碳 (CO) 中毒是全球每年大量死亡的可预防原因.
- 之前对二氧化碳中毒的研究缺乏全面的社会人口分析和预测模型.
- 这项研究旨在通过分析全球二氧化碳中毒模式来填补这些空白.
研究的目的:
- 使用时空方法全面分析全球CO中毒模式.
- 确定与碳中毒负担相关的社会人口因素.
- 开发未来碳中毒趋势的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 利用来自204个国家的2021年全球疾病负担研究数据 (1990-2021年).
- 用于时间趋势分析的Joinpoint回归和用于地理集群的空间统计.
- 应用ARIMA模型来预测未来的趋势,并分析与社会人口指数 (SDI) 的关联.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,全球CO中毒的年龄标准化发病率,死亡率和DALY率显著下降.
- 2021年,东欧的CO中毒负担最高,男性死亡率高于女性.
- 在SDI和CO中毒负担之间观察到一个反转的U形关系,在中等发育水平达到峰值.
结论:
- 死亡率超过发病率的下降表明治疗能力有所改善.
- 中等发达国家被确定为CO中毒干预的优先目标.
- 建议在东欧开展针对性别的预防计划和改善基础设施.
- 预测模型显示到2050年将继续下降,这有助于医疗保健规划.
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