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通过接触网络和数学建模确定猪病原体的有效监测措施
Kathleen Moriarty1,2, Antoine Champetier3, Francesco Galli3
1University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
PloS one
|August 22, 2025
概括
直接的卡车运输和本地传播是猪传染病的关键途径. 基于农民的监测有效地检测了猪生殖和呼吸系统综合征 (PRRS) 病毒,非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 病毒和Actinobacillus肺炎 (APP) 疫情.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学
- 疾病传播模型
- 动物健康管理
背景情况:
- 畜牧业的传染病对动物健康,农民生计和肉类产业产生重大影响.
- 了解疾病传播途径和监测效果对于预防大规模疫情至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估直接畜牧运输,运输旅游和环境接触在猪病原体传播中的作用.
- 评估不同监测策略在发现疾病爆发方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用瑞士猪生产部门的经验数据建立联系网络.
- 使用基于群体的随机,易受感染和恢复 (SIR) 模型来模拟病原体的传播.
- 对猪生殖和呼吸系统综合征 (PRRS) 病毒,非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 病毒和Actinobacillus肺炎 (APP) 的模型进行了参数化.
主要成果:
- 直接的卡车运输和当地环境传播被确定为农场间传播的主要途径.
- 基于农民的监测始终发现了APP和PRRS的爆发.
- 基于农民的监测发现了比以屠宰场或网络为基础的方法更早的ASF疫情.
结论:
- 直接传播和局部传播是猪传染病传播的主要途径.
- 基于农民的监测是早期发现猪病原体爆发的高效策略.
- 这些发现可以为制定有针对性的预防猪传染病传播计划提供信息.
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