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探索沿海洪水风险与社会经济风险之间的交叉点:来自中国沿海地区的证据
He Xu1, Xiyong Hou2, Baolei Zhang3
1College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, PR China; Hydro-environmental Research Centre, School of Engineering, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Journal of environmental management
|August 22, 2025
概括
由于海平面上升,中国沿海地区的洪水风险正在增加. 这项研究揭示了沿海洪水风险与社会经济风险之间的重要空间相关性,突出了需要紧急和长期适应战略的地区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 适应气候变化
- 社会经济风险评估
背景情况:
- 海平面上升和沿海洪水构成了日益严重的全球威胁,尤其影响中国的沿海区域.
- 了解沿海洪水风险 (CFH) 和社会经济风险 (SEE) 之间的长期空间相互作用对于准确的风险评估和有效管理至关重要.
- 现有的框架不足以应对脆弱的沿海地区复杂而不断变化的风险.
研究的目的:
- 从2030年到2100年,分析沿海洪水风险和社会经济风险的时空交叉模式.
- 在各种代表性集中路径-共享社会经济路径 (RCP-SSP) 场景下预测这些模式.
- 根据不同的风险管理和适应策略,增强沿海地区的适应能力.
主要方法:
- 采用Bivariate Local Moran的I方法来评估CFH和SEE之间的空间相关性.
- 使用深度受影响的函数评估CFH.
- 通过分析层次过程权 (AHP-EW) 方法量化SEE.
主要成果:
- 在所有RCP-SSP场景下,预计到2100年"高高"集群 (高CFH,高SEE) 将显著扩大,特别是在广东,江苏和江.
- "高低"集群 (高CFH,低SEE) 也将扩大,主要在江苏,山东和上海,这表明需要长期预防措施的地区.
- 根据RCP8.5-SSP5情景,预计到2100年"高高"集群将包含大量的GDP和人口,这意味着对稳定存在严重威胁.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了针对沿海洪水风险的具体空间模式的差异化风险管理方法的必要性.
- 对于"高高"集群地区来说, 立即和强有力的干预对于保护资产和人口至关重要.
- 建议对"高低"集群区域制定长期预防策略,以减轻未来的风险.
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