可修改的风险因素降低对未来痴呆症负担的影响:微模拟建模研究
Chiara C Brück1, Koen de Nijs2, M Arfan Ikram3
1Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. c.bruck@erasmusmc.nl.
European journal of epidemiology
|August 23, 2025
概括
减少吸烟和高血压等可改变的风险因素可以降低痴呆病例, 然而,预期寿命的增加可能会导致老年人患痴呆症的增加.
科学领域:
- 神经科学
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 据估计,30%至50%的痴呆病例与可改变的风险因素有关.
- 痴呆风险降低策略对人口的影响仍然不确定.
- 准确的建模需要考虑预期寿命的变化和风险因素的同时发生.
研究的目的:
- 评估针对中年高血压和晚年吸烟的干预措施对痴呆和死亡率的影响.
- 模拟各种风险降低场景,从部分消除到完全消除.
- 评估对痴呆症发病率,患病率,病例数和患有痴呆症和没有痴呆症的寿命的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用MISCAN-痴呆症微模拟模型.
- 对高血压和吸烟的模拟干预,包括完全消除.
- 分析了不同减少水平和人口群体的结果.
主要成果:
- 所有模拟的风险因素降低导致痴呆症发病率,流行率和病例数量下降.
- 观察到痴呆症病例的显著减少:高血压为1. 1 - 3. 3%,吸烟为1. 4 - 2. 5%.
- 虽然增加了没有痴呆症的寿命,但由于预期寿命延长,导致老年痴呆症病例略有增加.
结论:
- 减少痴呆风险的策略,特别是吸烟和高血压,在增加无痴呆年龄方面提供了巨大的好处.
- 总体上可以减少痴呆病例的数量.
- 在评估这些干预措施的长期影响时,必须考虑预期寿命的同时变化.
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