半参数和参数共享脆弱模型的比较:撒哈拉以南非洲五岁以下儿童生存率的应用
Haile Mekonnen Fenta1,2,3, Ding-Geng Chen4,5, Temesgen T Zewotir6
1Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa. hailemekonnen@gmail.com.
BMC public health
|August 23, 2025
概括
撒哈拉以南非洲的五岁以下儿童死亡率受到各种因素的影响. 改善饮用水,清洁燃料和母亲的年龄大大降低了儿童死亡率,
科学领域:
- 人口统计
- 公共卫生
- 生存分析
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲 (sSA) 的五岁以下儿童死亡率仍然是一个关键问题.
- 关于南非国家和地区死亡率决定因素的差异研究有限.
- 儿童生存受到众多已知和未知的共同变量的影响,因地区而异.
研究的目的:
- 评估五岁以下儿童死亡时间和相关的风险因素.
- 在分析儿童生存数据时,比较半参数和参数脆弱模型的性能.
- 确定各行政区5岁以下儿童死亡率的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 使用来自33个南亚国家的人口和健康调查 (DHS) 的数据.
- 采用了各种脆弱分布的半参数和参数脆弱模型.
- 在选定的sSA国家内的行政区中建模了5岁以下的生存时间.
主要成果:
- 分析了330,373名儿童,其中6.02%的儿童死亡率为5岁以下.
- 显著的国家和地区差异影响了儿童的生存率.
- 孕产妇的年龄 (25-49岁),居住在城市,获得更好的饮用水和清洁的燃料与死亡风险降低有关.
结论:
- 具有逻辑正常脆弱性分布的指数式共享脆弱性危险模型的表现优于考克斯半参数模型.
- 确定的主要风险因素包括居住地,财富,媒体曝光,出生顺序,出生间隔,水资源和燃料类型.
- 这些发现突出了可修改的因素,对于减少5岁以下儿童死亡率至关重要.
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