在幼儿时代发展概率推理
Sarah Placì1, Stefania Pighin2, Tommaso Mastropasqua2
1Center for Mind/Brain Sciences, University of Trento, Italy; University of Göttingen, Germany.
五岁的孩子可以通过比较比例来理解概率. 然而,年幼的孩子经常使用更简单的策略,强调在发育研究中需要谨慎的实验设计.
科学领域:
- 认知发展
- 发展心理学
- 概率理论
背景情况:
- 关于儿童从比例计算概率的能力存在不一致的发现.
- 估计这个技能范围很广,从1岁到12岁.
研究的目的:
- 解决之前研究的不一致性.
- 测量3至5岁儿童的推理能力.
- 控制可能模仿正确的概率推理的启发式策略.
主要方法:
- 孩子们可以选择两种不同比例的彩色球.
- 如果一个目标球在随机混合后被抽出来,则会得到奖励.
- 实验试验操纵绝对和相对数量的球来解开推理策略.
主要成果:
- 大多数5岁的孩子总是选择目标物品比例较高的.
- 一个较小但显著的年轻儿童也表现出了这种理解.
- 许多3岁和4岁的孩子依赖于启发式策略,
结论:
- 从比例的概率推理出现在儿童早期,具有显著的变化.
- 五岁的孩子比年轻的孩子更能理解比例概率.
- 仔细的实验设计对于准确评估幼儿的推理能力和控制启发性偏见至关重要.
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