基于一百万个医疗记录的乳腺癌风险短期预测模型
Ofer Feinstein1, Dan Ofer2, Eitan Bachmat3
1The Rachel and Selim Benin School of Computer Science and Engineering, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
Clinical breast cancer
|August 23, 2025
概括
这项研究使用电子病历 (EMR) 开发了一年乳腺癌风险预测模型. 该模型的AUC-ROC值为0.85,可以帮助临床医生早期发现乳腺癌并做出决定.
科学领域:
- 癌症学
- 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 尽管乳腺癌查有进展, 但仍有很多女性被诊断为晚期的乳腺癌.
- 需要准确的短期乳腺癌风险预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 使用易于获取的电子病历 (EMR) 数据开发一个一年的乳腺癌风险预测模型.
- 支持乳腺癌风险评估中的临床决策.
主要方法:
- 从1985年至2021年对1,039,212人的回顾性队列研究.
- 使用纵向EMR数据,包括人口统计,家族病史,生活方式,病史和实验室测试.
- 使用CatBoost决策树方法和SHapley添加式解释 (SHAP) 对于模型培训和特征的重要性.
主要成果:
- 预测模型以0.85的ROC曲线下的面积 (AUC-ROC) 实现了高性能.
- 除了年龄,外科咨询和乳房活检外,还发现了新的预测特征,如药物,静脉压和TSH水平.
结论:
- 电子病历 (EMR) 数据可以有效地用于建立准确的短期乳腺癌风险预测模型.
- 这个模型可以帮助临床医生评估和管理短期乳腺癌风险.
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