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一个易于获得的预测模型用于杀性肠道阻塞:BAR-N
Cuifeng Zheng1,2, BaoWei Xu1,2, Pingxia Lu3
1Department of General Surgery (Emergency Surgery), Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, No.29 Xin quan Road , Fuzhou, Fujian Province, 350001, China.
使用临床和实验室数据开发了一种新的预测模型 - - BAR-N,用于识别窒息性肠道阻塞 (StBO). 这种工具有助于诊断,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学
- 外科瘤学
- 医疗诊断
背景情况:
- 小肠阻塞 (SBO) 是一种常见的胃肠道疾病,主要有两种类型:简单 (SiBO) 和窒息 (StBO).
- 窒息性SBO可能危及生命,包括败血症和多器官功能障碍综合征.
- 需要可访问的预测模型,以利用临床和实验室发现早期识别StBO.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种易于掌握的预测模型,用于诊断杀性小肠阻塞 (StBO).
- 确定与StBO相关的关键临床和实验室变量.
- 评估开发模型的诊断性能.
主要方法:
- 一组453名SBO患者被分为训练 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 组.
- 最小绝对收缩和选择运算符回归 (LASSO) 确定了重要的预测因素.
- 使用ROC曲线分析构建和评估一个多变量逻辑回归 (LR) 模型.
主要成果:
- 最终的BAR-N模型包含了预测因素,如反弹敏感性,BMI,中性粒细胞百分比和AST.
- 在 BAR- N 模型中,AUC 值为 0. 784 (训练) 和 0. 750 (验证).
- 该模型实现了高特异性 (90.3%) 和精度 (80.7%),灵敏度为31.8%.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种可访问的预测模型 (BAR-N),整合了StBO诊断的临床和实验室数据.
- 该模型显示了作为决策支持工具的潜力,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
- 需要进一步的多中心研究来验证该模型的通用性并确认其临床实用性.
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