一个48小时的症状值预测穿孔尾炎:临床风险模型的开发
Masato Fujino1, Shingo Ochiai2, Tadao Kubota3
1Department of Surgery, Tokyo Kita Medical Centre, Tokyo, Japan.
World journal of surgery
|August 24, 2025
概括
症状出现后延迟48小时或更长时间显著增加虫炎的风险. 这一发现有助于开发急性尾炎穿孔的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 医学研究
- 手术结果
- 预测模型
背景情况:
- 在入院时预测急性尾炎的穿孔对于治疗至关重要.
- 这项研究评估了症状发作到入院时间对穿孔风险的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估从症状出现到入院的时间与尾炎穿孔的风险之间的相关性.
- 开发一个包含关键临床因素的尾炎穿孔预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对414名因急性尾炎而接受尾切除的患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 根据症状发病时间 (0 - 96小时以上) 划分患者.
- 统计分析包括ROC分析和调整后的赔率比率计算.
主要成果:
- 穿孔风险随着时间间隔的延长而增加 (p < 0. 01).
- 48小时间隔是一个独立的风险因素 (adj OR = 3. 30).
- 增加的CRP (adj OR=5. 12) 和尾炎 (adj OR=2. 38) 也会增加穿孔的风险.
结论:
- 一个48小时的症状开始到呈现切断有效预测尾炎穿孔.
- 提出了一个结合时间间隔,CRP和尾炎存在的预测模型.
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