在削减福利国家政策偏好方面的党派影响
Miroslav Nemčok1, Hanna Wass2, Juho Vesa3
1Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Public opinion quarterly
|August 25, 2025
概括
选民调整他们的政策偏好与他们喜欢的政党一致, 即使这些政党制定福利改革. 这种动态的适应性减少了实施福利国家削减的各方的责任.
科学领域:
- 政治科学
- 公共政策
- 行为经济学
背景情况:
- 公民通常支持福利政策,但制定福利国家改革的政党往往面临最小的选举后果.
- 了解选民对福利削减的反应对于政治问责和政策分析至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查选民的政策偏好如何随着他们喜欢的政党发起的福利改革而变化.
- 研究芬兰福利国家削减的选举后果.
主要方法:
- 使用芬兰两个结构改革的自然准实验设计.
- 在政府政策变化之前和之后进行两波面板调查.
- 分析选民的政策偏好, 考虑意识形态和经济利益.
主要成果:
- 政府选民显著增加了对福利削减和增加社会支出改革的支持.
- 与反对派支持者相比, 政府支持者的投票偏好更为明显.
- 观察到的政策偏好转变与选民的根本意识形态和经济利益无关.
结论:
- 选民的政策偏好表现出动态的适应性,
- 这种适应性可能会减少党派对福利国家改革的责任.
- 调查结果挑战了关于选民对福利国家政策的偏好一致性的传统假设.
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