随着中国地区差异的增加,气候变化风险越来越严重
Ziqian Xia1,2,3, Jinquan Ye3,4, Ramit Debnath3,5
1School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
概括
在2010年至2023年期间,公众对气候变化优先级和影响的看法显著增加. 然而,在感知和风险暴露方面的区域差异凸显了有针对性的沟通策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 社会科学
- 关于气候变化的沟通
背景情况:
- 公众对气候变化的认识对于有效实施政策至关重要.
- 了解这些观念的空间和时间演变对于应对气候变化挑战至关重要.
- 中国的广地理和多元化人口在气候变化意识的绘制中带来独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 绘制2010年至2023年间中国公众对气候变化认识的高分辨率演变.
- 分析气候变化问题的优先级和影响的变化.
- 调查地区对气候变化看法的差异及其与实际风险接触的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用了13年间进行的两项大规模全国调查 (N=11783和N=4050) 的数据.
- 采用多级回归和分层和分类方法进行可靠的分析.
- 进行重复模拟以确保结果的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 气候变化在国家层面的重点 (19%) 和影响 (13%) 显著增加.
- 发现公众对气候变化的看法越来越差.
- 发现气候变化影响与实际风险之间存在空间差异.
结论:
- 这项研究强调了国家气候变化意识的显著增长,但强调了持续的区域不平等.
- 解决空间不匹配需要定制的沟通策略来管理区域的脆弱性.
- 在中国,有效的气候变化适应和减缓取决于公众认知与科学风险评估相一致.
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