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Updated: Sep 10, 2025

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群体死亡率预测显示预期寿命增长有所放缓
José Andrade1, Carlo Giovanni Camarda2, Héctor Pifarré I Arolas3,4,5
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany.
概括
高收入国家的预期寿命增长正在放缓. 这种减速主要是由于死亡率在非常年轻的年龄段,尤其是5岁以下的年龄段变慢.
科学领域:
- 人口统计
- 公共卫生
- 死亡率科学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪初以来,高收入国家的预期寿命持续增长.
- 预期寿命增长的未来趋势是不确定的,可能会放缓.
研究的目的:
- 在23个高收入国家预测1939年至2000年间出生的人群预期寿命.
- 确定预期寿命增长是否正在减缓,并确定这一趋势的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 应用多种已知和新的死亡率预测方法.
- 从1939年到2000年的出生队伍的预期寿命估计.
- 年龄分解分析以确定不同年龄组的死亡率改善趋势.
主要成果:
- 在所有预测方法中均有可靠的证据表明队列预期寿命的减速.
- 观察到的改善速度 (每组0. 46年) 减少了37%至52%.
- 主要是由于死亡率在非常年轻的年龄 (年龄在5岁以下和20岁以下) 中的缓慢改善导致的减速.
结论:
- 预期寿命增长的趋势强,不太可能仅仅是由于预测偏差.
- 生命早期死亡率的缓慢改善是导致这一减速的主要原因.
- 观察到的模式表明,这种减速不太可能在不久的将来逆转.
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