高分辨率的气候数据显示全球葡萄树的皮尔斯病风险增加
Àlex Giménez-Romero1, Eduardo Moralejo2, Manuel A Matías3
1Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC, CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain. alex.gimenez@csic.es.
Scientific reports
|August 25, 2025
概括
非线性流行病学模型显示全球葡萄园的皮尔斯病风险增加. 高分辨率的气候数据显示了以前隐藏的威胁,
科学领域:
- 植物病理学
- 流行病学
- 葡萄种植
背景情况:
- 植物疾病的范围转移受扩散过程的影响,但作物研究往往忽视了这一点.
- 地形复杂的河谷对于高品质的葡萄酒生产至关重要,需要精确的疾病建模.
- 新出现的葡萄病原体对全球葡萄种植构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 通过非线性流行病学模型评估全球葡萄酒地区的皮尔斯病风险.
- 研究气候数据的空间分辨率对疾病风险评估的影响.
- 确定皮尔斯病的高风险区域,特别是在具有显著空间梯度的区域.
主要方法:
- 使用非线性流行病学模型模拟疾病传播.
- 使用不同空间分辨率的气候数据进行模拟结果的比较.
- 分析了全球超过10万个葡萄园的疾病风险变化.
主要成果:
- 在主要葡萄种植地区发现皮尔斯病风险显著增加.
- 欧洲的风险从21.8%增加到41.2%,南非的风险从5.6%增加到47.2%.
- 强调了微气候条件的重要性,并确定了河流和山谷附近的新风险区.
结论:
- 非线性模型和高分辨率数据对于准确的葡萄藤病风险评估至关重要.
- 皮尔斯病对全球葡萄种植构成越来越严重的威胁,
- 低分辨率的气候数据集不足以捕捉影响疾病传播的复杂气候变化.
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