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气候变化对非洲粮食安全的影响研究

Jinglei Liu^1,2, Jiajie Wu^1,2, Dong Jiang^1,2

¹Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.

Scientific reports

|August 25, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁着撒哈拉以南非洲的粮食安全. 玉米产量可能会大幅下降,而米和小麦产量可能会因二氧化碳施肥而增加,而大豆产量则保持稳定. 未来的预测取决于作物和情况.

科学领域:

农业科学
气候科学
食品安全研究

背景情况:

全球变暖和极端天气事件越来越威胁着全球的粮食安全.
撒哈拉以南非洲特别脆弱,因为它依赖于雨水农业和多样化的作物生产.

研究的目的:

评估气候变化对撒哈拉以南非洲四种主要作物 (玉米,大米,小麦,大豆) 的产量的影响.
根据作物对气候变量的生理反应,分析不同作物类型的影响.
根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和气候模型预测未来收益趋势.

主要方法:

使用随机森林模型估计空间和时间产量趋势.
将气候变量,土地使用模式和灌比例纳入模型.
在三个SSP场景 (SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 中使用了五种全球气候模型 (GCM).

主要成果:

预计玉米 (C4作物) 产量将大幅下降,特别是在SSP5-8.5期间,南非东部和赞比亚将受到严重影响.
预计大米和小麦 (C3作物) 将从二氧化碳施肥中受益,从而可能增加产量. 西非的米产量可能会增加, 南非和尼日利亚的小麦产量可能会增加.
预计大豆 (C3固作物) 的产量将保持相对稳定,与历史平均水平相比略有下降,分布模式稳定.

结论:

气候变化对撒哈拉以南非洲农业的影响是特定于作物的,玉米面临重大风险.
对于大米和小麦等C3作物来说,二氧化碳施肥效应可能会带来一些收益,但整体粮食安全仍然是一个问题.
了解这些不同影响对于制定有针对性的适应战略至关重要,以确保在未来气候情景下区域粮食安全.

关键词:

气候变化粮食安全随机森林空间和时间演变撒哈拉以南非洲

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