气候变化对中国电力系统脱碳的区域间传输的影响
Rui Su1, Cuncun Duan2, Bin Chen1
1State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Environmental science & technology
|August 26, 2025
概括
气候变化影响中国的电力系统, 加强区域间传输能力对于实现到2060年的碳中和目标至关重要.
科学领域:
- 适应气候变化
- 电力系统工程
- 可再生能源的整合
背景情况:
- 区域间输电是平衡供需的关键.
- 气候变化加剧了区域力量失衡和经济损失.
- 中国的目标是到2060年实现碳中和,
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化下探索中国电力系统的深度脱碳途径.
- 量化气候变化对电力系统平衡和成本的影响.
- 评估区域间传输在实现碳中和方面的作用.
主要方法:
- 将全球气候模型与省级电力系统优化模型相结合.
- 分析冷却/加热需求和可再生能源的变化.
- 评估输电容量扩张和相关成本.
主要成果:
- 气候变化增加了冷却需求,减少了供暖需求,并改变了风能/太阳能发电.
- 实现2060年的碳中和需要93.2%的非化石发电和4047至4053.9吉瓦的新输电能力.
- 输电线路成本可能会增加40.4-42.5% (379亿美元至396亿美元).
结论:
- 区域间调度对于减轻可再生能源间歇性至关重要.
- 深度脱碳途径可以利用丰富的太阳能资源在某些气候场景下降成本 (SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5).
- 将气候变化适应纳入电力系统脱碳计划是必不可少的.
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