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生物多样性依赖的生态系统服务债务对社会生态系统安全运行空间的影响:理论建模研究
Maarten B Eppinga1, Nathalia Pérez-Cárdenas1, Martin O Reader1
1Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Proceedings. Biological sciences
|August 26, 2025
概括
息地破坏的遗留效应,如灭绝债务,可以破坏社会生态系统的稳定. 这些依赖生物多样性的生态系统服务债务减少了安全的操作空间,并可能导致系统意外崩.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学
- 生态学
- 社会生态系统
背景情况:
- 人类时代的特点是快速的环境变化,导致遗留效应.
- 过去的息地破坏造成的物种灭绝债务是一个重要的遗留效应.
- 生物多样性丧失可能导致生态系统服务负债,影响人类社会.
研究的目的:
- 研究依赖生物多样性的生态系统服务债务对社会生态系统轨迹的影响.
- 分析这些债务如何影响系统稳定性和安全操作空间.
主要方法:
- 使用动态系统模型进行理论研究.
- 这种模式将生物多样性依赖的生态系统服务债务纳入其中,这些债务源于息地破坏.
主要成果:
- 生物多样性依赖的生态系统服务债务减少了安全的运营空间,并创造了环境临界点.
- 系统过渡可能表现出长时间的表面稳定性,掩盖潜在的不稳定性.
- 这些债务最初可能是收回的,但可能是系统崩之前的.
结论:
- 生物多样性依赖的生态系统服务债务对社会生态系统的可持续性构成重大威胁.
- 可持续的管理需要明确考虑这些债务.
- 在最近的观测中,系统的明显稳定性可能不能可靠地表明系统的安全操作空间.
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