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在意大利北部实现零污染行动计划和欧盟2024/2881PM2.5目标的进展和政策

Laura Zecchi¹, Michele Francesco Arrighini¹, Claudio Marchesi²

¹Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, Via Branze 38, Brescia, 25123, Italy.

Scientific reports

|August 26, 2025

概括

欧洲对细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 的空气质量目标尚未实现. 目前的政策可能无法实现零污染行动计划 (ZPAP) 的目标,

科学领域:

环境健康
空气质量科学
公共卫生政策

背景情况:

细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 显著导致欧洲的过早死亡.
欧洲零污染行动计划 (ZPAP) 和欧盟指令2024/2881为减少PM2.5暴露和相关死亡设定了雄心勃勃的目标.
评估目前政策的有效性和减少PM2.5的未来需求至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估当前和拟议的政策是否能够在2030年之前实现ZPAP和欧盟指令2024/2881的PM2.5目标.
根据现行立法 (CLE2030) 和优化政策情景 (OPT2030),量化PM2.5导致的死亡.
确定是否需要额外的政策干预来实现空气质量目标.

主要方法:

开发一种方法来估计2005年,2019年和预计2030年的PM2.5死亡.
该方法应用于意大利北部高污染地区的波河谷.
针对PM2.5度和减轻成本的现行立法 (CLE2030) 和优化政策 (OPT2030) 的建模.

主要成果:

在2005年至2019年期间,与PM2.5相关的过早死亡人数平均下降了36%.
根据CLE2030的预测,到2030年,29个主要城市中只有2个将达到 (EU) 2024/2881指令的严格PM2.5目标.
根据OPT2030方案,13个城市实现了指令中的PM2.5目标,26个城市实现了ZPAP目标.

结论:

目前的政策不足以实现ZPAP和欧盟指令2024/2881规定的雄心勃勃的PM2.5减少目标.
根据OPT2030的模式,需要采取额外的政策措施,以大幅改善空气质量并减少与PM2.5相关的死亡率.
有针对性的干预措施可以在欧洲各大城市广泛实现空气质量目标.

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