在共享社会经济路径中实现数字化转型
Yee Van Fan1, Charlie Wilson1,2, Marina Andrijevic2
1Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
概括
数字化转型正在重塑社会和经济,影响气候和可持续发展. 预测显示数字沟持续存在,到本世纪中叶,数字化程度较低的国家将达到45%.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学
- 气候科学
- 信息技术
背景情况:
- 数字化转型极大地影响着社会和经济活动.
- 它对可持续发展和气候挑战的影响是显著的,具有积极和消极的影响.
- 在全球气候研究中广泛使用共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 框架.
研究的目的:
- 通过整合统计模型,在SSP中预测未来的数字化转型.
- 通过丰富的文本来加强SSP的框架,
- 能够对数字化对能源,排放,气候政策和可持续发展目标的影响进行定量评估.
主要方法:
- 使用了12个世界地区62个国家的历史数据校准的统计模型.
- 将数字化转型预测整合到已建立的SSP场景框架中.
- 开发了六个用例来展示增强的SSP的应用.
主要成果:
- 在一些场景中预测了普遍和长期的数字沟.
- 发现,到本世纪中叶,高达45%的评估人口可能居住在数字化转型较低的国家.
- 突出了富裕国家与不富裕国家的数字化差异.
结论:
- 在SSP中明确表示数字化转型,可以更细致地了解其全球影响.
- 这项研究为评估数字化在气候和可持续性努力中的作用提供了定量工具.
- 由于其动态性和社会经济影响,在预测快速数字化变革方面存在挑战.
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