2020年至2030年心血管疾病的全球预测
在PubMed上查看摘要
概括
此摘要是机器生成的。预计到2030年,心血管疾病的负担将在全球范围内增加,对男性和低收入地区的影响不成比例. 有针对性的预防和医疗改善对于减轻风险和降低死亡率至关重要.
科学领域
- 流行病学
- 全球健康
- 预防医学
背景情况
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 仍然是全球主要的健康问题.
- 对心脏病发病率,死亡率和残疾的准确预测对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的
- 预测2020年至2030年的全球心血管疾病负担.
- 确定心血管疾病的高风险人群和地理区域.
- 提供有针对性的公共卫生干预和资源分配的信息.
主要方法
- 使用了2019年全球疾病负担研究 (1990-2019) 的数据.
- 使用通用添加模型 (GAM) 来预测疾病负担.
- 计算估计年百分比变化 (EAPC) 来分析时间趋势.
主要成果
- 年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 预计每年增加0.11%.
- 年龄标准化死亡率 (ASDR) 预计每年下降1.11%,DALY率下降1.04%.
- 预计到2030年,男性和社会人口指数 (SDI) 较低的地区,特别是大洋洲和中亚,将承担更高的心血管疾病负担.
- 佛得角的DALY和死亡率最高,斯洛文尼亚的发病率最高.
结论
- 全球心血管疾病负担预计将会上升,但存在显著差异.
- 需要有针对性的干预措施.
- 加强初级预防,实施性别特异性战略,改善服务不足地区的医疗保健是减少心血管疾病的关键.
- 全球合作和投资对于公平的健康成果至关重要.
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