中国和全球的唐氏综合症负担:基于GBD 2021数据库的1990-2021年趋势和未来预测的比较分析
Xiangwen Tu1, Feng Zhang2, Junkun Chen1
1Laboratory of Eugenics Genetics, Ganzhou Women and Children's Health Care Hospital, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 27, 2025
概括
从1990年到2021年,唐氏综合症 (DS) 的疾病负担在全球和中国下降. 中国的死亡率和残疾率下降得更快,但发病率和患病率仍高于全球平均水平.
科学领域:
- 遗传学和基因组学
- 公共卫生和流行病学
- 神经科学
背景情况:
- 唐氏综合症 (DS) 是由染色体异常引起的全球重大健康挑战.
- 对于有效的公共卫生干预来说, 了解中国和全世界的疾病负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析中国和全球唐氏综合征的发病率,患病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命 (DALYs).
- 使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来的流行变化.
主要方法:
- 利用全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2021 数据库从1990年到2021年的数据.
- 使用结合点回归分析来确定时间趋势 (APC,AAPC).
- 应用贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型进行流行预测 (2022-2036年).
主要成果:
- 全球年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 从每10万人中的1.27降至0.97;中国的ASIR从每10万人中的1.68降至1.18.
- 全球年龄标准化患病率 (ASPR) 从每10万人的27.98下降到21.07;中国的ASPR从每10万人的28.01下降到24.8.
- 与全球平均水平相比,中国的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 和DALY率 (ASDR) 的下降幅度更大. 预测显示ASPR将在2036年继续下降.
结论:
- 1990年至2021年间,唐氏综合征的疾病负担在全球和中国均有所下降.
- 虽然中国的死亡率和残疾率下降得更快,但其发病率和患病率仍然较高.
- 未来的战略应侧重于早期识别,明智的决策支持,以及为患有DS的人提供终身多学科护理的公平机会.
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