时间偏好与稀缺性相适应:情感的作用?
Bastien Blain1,2,3, Laura K Globig1,2,4, Tali Sharot1,2,5
1Affective Brain Lab, Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, WC1H 0AP UK.
概括
经济冲击直接影响人们对未来回报的评价, 这项研究发现收入的变化, 而不是情绪, 推动了这一转变,
科学领域:
- 行为经济学
- 决策科学
- 心理学
背景情况:
- 时间上的折扣,即时的回报比未来的回报更有价值,影响了健康,金融和可持续性方面的决策.
- 资源可用性和情绪等因素影响时间折扣, 但它们的相互作用是复杂的.
- 之前的假设将负面情绪与增加的时间折扣联系在一起,特别是在经济困难时期.
研究的目的:
- 调查收入冲击和对时间折扣的负面影响.
- 要确定人们的时间偏好是否直接适应环境约束或通过情绪反应.
- 为了利用大规模的全球收入冲击事件进行实证分析.
主要方法:
- 在2020年3月的市场崩和失业率上升期间调查了1,145人.
- 随着市场在2020年6月恢复,重新测试了这些人中的200人.
- 分析了横截面和纵向数据以评估延迟折扣的变化.
主要成果:
- 收入冲击显著增加了延迟折扣,这表明人们更倾向于立即获得回报.
- 即使控制负面影响 (情绪) 后,这种影响仍然显著.
- 收入冲击和延迟贴现增加之间的关系在横截面和纵向分析中一致.
结论:
- 与常见的假设相反,收入变化直接改变延迟折扣,独立于情绪反应.
- 个人根据环境限制来调整自己的时间偏好,而不仅仅是通过情感系统的调解.
- 这种直接的适应可能是进化的优势,因为情绪可能是环境条件的不可靠指标.
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