在依赖下获胜者的诅咒:使用复杂密度修复经验贝叶斯
Stijn Hawinkel1,2, Olivier Thas3,4,5, Steven Maere1,2
1Department of Plant Biotechnology and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Technologiepark 71, 9052 Gent, Belgium.
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)
|August 27, 2025
概括
获胜者的诅咒是大规模测试中的选择偏差,可以使用引导或经验贝叶斯方法进行纠正. 这些方法提高了准确性,但可能不会提高可复制性的特征排名.
科学领域:
- 统计数据
- 生物信息学
- 基因组学
背景情况:
- 获胜者的诅咒是影响大规模测试和可复制性的选择偏差.
- 现有的校正方法对特征依赖性的敏感性仍然不清楚.
- 理论分析和比较研究是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 调查特征依赖对获胜者的诅咒纠正方法的影响.
- 提出和评估新的偏差纠正方法.
- 在现实应用中评估不同校正策略的性能.
主要方法:
- 在依赖状态下对Tweedie的公式进行理论分析.
- 用于偏差校正的密度估计器卷积的开发.
- 综合模拟研究,比较各种纠正方法.
- 应用到Brassica napus基因表达数据进行表型预测.
主要成果:
- 推迪的公式估计具有强大的特征依赖性.
- 一个基于卷积的密度估计器恢复了竞争性能.
- 带有密度卷积的Bootstrap和经验贝叶斯方法在偏差校正中表现最好.
- 偏差校正通常不会改善特征排名.
结论:
- 使用特定的统计方法可以有效地纠正胜利者的诅咒偏差,特别是在特征依赖下.
- 校正方法的选择影响了估计的准确性,但不一定是特征排名.
- 单一特征预测模型的优势可能是胜利者的诅咒偏见.
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