气候政策不确定性对中国区域经济发展的多元影响:双重机器学习的证据
Zhilin Huang1, Qianyi Zhang1, Yayin Zheng2
1School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 27, 2025
概括
气候政策不确定性 (CPU) 在不同地区对中国经济产生不同影响. 发达地区受益,而欠发达地区面临负面影响,需要针对碳中和目标制定定制政策.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学
- 区域经济学
- 政策分析
背景情况:
- 气候变化给全球经济带来了重大挑战.
- 中国的碳中和追求涉及多种气候政策.
- 政策不确定性带来风险,特别是在经济发展差异较大的地区.
研究的目的:
- 研究气候政策不确定性对人均生产总值的影响.
- 分析中国不同经济发展水平的不同地区的影响.
主要方法:
- 省级经济的集群分析.
- 用于因果推断的双重机器学习 (DML).
- 用于模型验证的强度测试.
主要成果:
- 在发达地区,CPU显示出显著的积极效果.
- 在中等发达地区出现了中等的积极影响.
- 在欠发达地区出现负面影响,在欠发达地区出现轻微的积极影响.
结论:
- 气候政策的不确定性对经济的影响高度依赖于区域发展水平.
- 考虑到工业结构和财政状况,不同的政策反应至关重要.
- 定制策略对于减轻CPU不利影响和实现"双碳"目标至关重要.
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