环境库兹内茨曲线假设是否适用于所有国家? 来自调整偏差的动态面板数据模型的新见解
Hasraddin Guliyev1, Ilgar Seyfullayev1
1Azerbaijan State University of Economics, International Magistrate and Doctorate Center, Baku, AZ1007, Azerbaijan.
Journal of environmental management
|August 27, 2025
概括
经济增长最初会增加二氧化碳排放,但这种关系因国家收入水平而异. 政策必须与排放脱,尤其是在发展中国家,以促进可持续发展.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学
- 可持续的发展
- 经济计量学
背景情况:
- 环境库兹内茨曲线 (EKC) 假设经济增长与环境退化之间存在反向的U形关系.
- 了解这种关系对于制定有效的环境政策和实现可持续发展目标至关重要.
- 之前的研究结果各不相同,因此需要对不同国家收入群体进行进一步的调查.
研究的目的:
- 在1995年至2018年间对147个国家的环境库兹内茨曲线假设进行实证测试.
- 研究经济增长,工业化,外国直接投资和全球化对二氧化碳排放的影响.
- 制定特定收入政策,使经济增长与环境影响脱而出.
主要方法:
- 使用偏差纠正的动态面板数据模型进行稳健的计量经济分析.
- 包括人均GDP作为主要解释变量.
- 包括工业化,外国直接投资和全球化作为控制变量.
主要成果:
- 证实了高收入和中等收入国家的反向U形EKC,表明在一定经济门之后的排放量下降.
- 在低收入国家观察到U型模式,表明随着经济增长而排放量持续增加.
- 发现工业化 (高收入),外国直接投资 (低收入和中等收入) 和全球化 (低收入) 对排放产生了显著的积极影响.
结论:
- 所有收入层面的排放持续性都很高,特别是在中低收入国家.
- 高收入国家需要管理工业排放,而低收入和中等收入国家需要支持监管能力和清洁技术转让.
- 长期战略和国际合作对于逐步政策影响和避免高碳发展轨迹至关重要.
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