基于最大度建模的泰国块性皮肤病的空间风险分布
Kusnul Yuli Maulana1, Supitchaya Siriyakhun2, Kannika Na-Lampang1,2
1Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, Thailand.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|August 28, 2025
概括
泰国的块性皮肤病 (LSD) 风险受土地覆盖面和牛群密度的影响. 中部和东北部地区对这种牲畜疾病的环境适度最高,需要有针对性的控制策略.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学
- 疾病建模
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 块性皮肤病 (LSD) 是对畜牧业的重大跨境威胁.
- 媒介传播是LSD传播的主要驱动因素.
- 环境和气候因素极大地影响了LSD传播的动态.
研究的目的:
- 模拟泰国各地对块性皮肤病 (LSD) 的环境适应性.
- 确定LSD发生的主要环境预测因素.
- 为疾病预防和控制策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 最大的模型方法.
- 对LSD疫情数据的分析 (2021-2023年).
- 包括生物气候变量,土地覆盖面,NDVI和牛群密度.
主要成果:
- 该模型的预测性能中等 (AUC = 0. 699).
- 土地面积 (65%),牛群密度 (25%) 和NDVI (3%) 是最有影响力的预测因素.
- 泰国中部和东北部被确定为高风险地区.
结论:
- 环境适应性建模为LSD分布提供了洞察力.
- 这些发现支持基于风险的监测和资源分配.
- 提升早期预警系统对于泰国LSD控制至关重要.
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