在SARS-CoV-2感染中风险评分的表现:一项回顾性研究
Alessandro Geremia1, Arturo Montineri1, Alessandra Sorce2
1Unit of Infectious Diseases, San Marco Hospital, 95121 Catania, Italy.
概括
4C死亡率和COVID-GRAM有效预测住院的SARS-CoV-2患者的死亡. 这些低成本的工具可以识别高风险的个体并帮助未来的流行病准备.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病
- 流行病学
- 临床医学
背景情况:
- 预测得分可以优化流行病期间关键患者的资源分配.
- SARS-CoV-2 疫情凸显了需要有效的工具来预测患者的结果.
研究的目的:
- 追溯分析住院SARS-CoV-2患者死亡或ICU/SICU转移的五个风险评分的表现.
- 识别患有严重后果的脆弱患者.
- 评估这些得分对未来的流行病准备的有用性.
主要方法:
- 对119名住院感染SARS-CoV-2的成年患者进行了回顾性观察研究.
- 使用接收器操作特征曲线和AUC计算的五个风险分数的比较.
- 对死亡率和ICU/SICU转移的预测性能进行评估.
主要成果:
- 5个分数中的4个准确预测死亡率 (AUC 0. 749- 0. 885).
- 在预测ICU/ SICU转移时,两个评分表现良好 (AUC为0.740- 0.802).
- 4C死亡率和COVID-GRAM显示了这两种结果的最高表现.
结论:
- 4C死亡率和COVID-GRAM是SARS-CoV-2感染的准确,低成本和易于应用的预测工具.
- 这些分数可以帮助识别高风险,虚弱和老年患者.
- 它们的实用性延伸到临床实践和对未来的流行病的准备.
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