温度对松病的值和滞后效应显示出显著的空间异质性
Ruicong Zhang1,2, Jixia Huang1, Xiaoting Zhao1
1Precision Forestry Laboratory of Beijing, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Insects
|August 28, 2025
概括
气候变化影响松病 (PWD) 的传播. 气温上升会对森林残疾人产生重大值和滞后影响,影响森林健康和经济稳定.
科学领域:
- 森林病理学
- 气候变化 生态
- 细菌学
背景情况:
- 松病 (PWD) 在全球构成重大经济威胁.
- 气候变化,特别是气温上升,加剧了PWD风险,可能会扩大其范围和影响.
- 松树线虫的生命周期取决于温度, 历史的天气模式影响了当前的疾病爆发.
研究的目的:
- 调查温度值和时间延迟对中国PWD发生的影响.
- 探索这些温度对PWD的影响的空间异质性.
- 在不断变化的气候条件下为残疾人管理策略提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 使用来自中国的省级PWD发生数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 来分析温度效应.
- 研究了温度与疾病关系的值效应,延迟效应和空间变化.
主要成果:
- 温度通过值和延迟效应显著影响PWD.
- 在不同中国省份确定了不同的值温度 (19.525.1°C) 和滞后期 (13个月).
- 在值温度中观察到显著的空间异质性,与区域平均温度具有正相关性.
结论:
- 温度作为一个关键因素,对PWD动态有明显的值和延迟影响.
- 温度敏感度的空间变化凸显了针对区域的PWD管理的需要.
- 这些发现支持加强森林保护策略,
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