气候变化驱动北向迁移:一个多场景的MaxEnt建模方法
Yangzhou Xiang1, Qiong Yang1, Suhang Li1
1School of Geography and Resources, Guizhou Education University, Guiyang 550018, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 28, 2025
概括
气候变化对Betula alnoides的分布产生了重大影响,在未来的情景中预计会有息地丧失. 这种物种可能适合变暖的地区.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 气候变化生物学
- 森林管理
背景情况:
- 森林生态系统因气候变化而面临前所未有的挑战.
- 在中国南部,白树在生态和经济上具有重要意义.
- 关于B. alnoides的分布模式和气候变化反应的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化场景下建模B. alnoides的当前和未来分布.
- 确定影响B. alnoides分布的主要环境因素.
- 评估气候变化对B. alnoides息地的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 使用气候,地形,土壤,植被 (NDVI) 和人类活动数据开发了MaxEnt模型.
- 用ENMeval利用了中国的物种发生数据和优化模型参数.
- 根据不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 情景的预计潜在分布.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型的预测准确度很高 (AUC=0. 956).
- 影响分布的关键因素包括温度季节性 (Bio4),NDVI,最干旱季度的温度 (Bio9) 和年降水 (Bio12).
- 目前适宜的息地集中在中国西南部 (18.68%的陆地面积);未来预测显示在SSP370和SSP585下息地缩小,向西北转移.
结论:
- 贝图拉 (Betula alnoides) 对气候变化非常敏感,预计未来会发生重大分布变化和息地丧失.
- 建议保护中国西南地区的高适宜性区域.
- B. alnoides可以作为温暖和干燥地区的替代物种,以提高气候适应性.
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