在时间序列中使用波点,多重线性回归和ARIMA预测变化的建模
Nadeem Bashir1, Awais Rasheed1, Muhammad Osama2
1Department of Physics, King Abdullah Campus, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Pakistan.
Isotopes in environmental and health studies
|August 28, 2025
概括
时间序列数据中的气异常可能在地震之前发生. 像ARIMA这样的先进模型可以有效预测度,
科学领域:
- 地质学
- 环境科学
- 地震学
背景情况:
- (Rn) 是由衰变产生的天然放射性气体.
- 被用作地质标记物,其时间序列数据 (RTS) 可能表明地震事件.
- 了解与气候因素的行为对于地质学和地震学研究至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 与气候因素 (温度,压力,湿度) 一起分析复杂的时间序列 (RTS) 数据.
- 使用模拟技术从RTS数据中提取有意义的物理信息.
- 确定最佳模型来预测度及其作为地震前体的潜力.
主要方法:
- 基于波纹的回归 (WBR) 来分析温度,压力和湿度的行为.
- 多重线性回归 (MLR) 评估和气候因素之间的关系.
- 自动回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型用于时间序列分析,模式识别和预测,使用AIC和BIC进行优化.
主要成果:
- 通过WBR表现出温度的线性行为和压力和湿度的非线性行为.
- MLR证实了,压力和湿度之间的正相关性.
- 在地震事件之前观察到RTS数据的异常.
- 在预测长期度方面,ARIMA模型表现出卓越的性能.
结论:
- 随着气候因素的影响, 的时间序列数据显示,
- 在预测度方面,ARIMA模型非常有效,有助于减少灾害风险.
- 这项研究支持联合国关于环境健康,基础设施安全和抗灾能力的可持续发展目标.
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