一个概念模型来量化漏出流的概率
Leon S Besseling1, Anouk Bomers1, Jord J Warmink1
1University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
概括
这项研究引入了一种用于应急规划的堤突破外流的快速概念模型. 该模型准确地估计了洪水的影响,在关键事件期间能够快速分析场景.
科学领域:
- 水文学
- 水资源管理
- 土木工程
背景情况:
- 水力动力模型提供了准确性,但对于实时应急分析来说,它们是计算密集的.
- 概念模型为堤破裂场景提供更快的模拟,平衡速度和准确性.
- 在极端的河流排放事件中,堤破裂带来了重大风险,需要快速评估影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证漏洞外流的概念模型,并整合漏洞的增长.
- 评估模型在各种河流排放条件和漏洞位置的性能.
- 能够对堤破裂的后果进行快速的概率分析,
主要方法:
- 一个包含堤破裂增长动态的概念模型的开发.
- 模拟各种河流排放场景和莱河分叉沿线的堤破口外流.
- 概念模型结果与高保真水力学模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 概念模型准确地估计了堤突破的外流,不管河流排放的波浪特征如何.
- 与运行中的水力动力学模型相比,达到了10-15%的误差.
- 能够每分钟分析成千上万种情况, 便于进行概率评估.
结论:
- 开发的概念模型提供了现实的,快速的堤防漏洞外流估计.
- 适用于需要最小输入数据和计算资源的大规模堤破坏.
- 提高应急准备能力和决策能力.
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