完善在山区高速公路上的组合对齐段的分类,并分析对碰撞频率的时空影响
Yesihati Azati1, Xuesong Wang1, Xinchen Ye1
1College of Transportation, Tongji University, 4800 Cao'an Road, Jiading District, Shanghai 201804, China; The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, 4800 Cao'an Road, Jiading District, 201804 Shanghai, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|August 28, 2025
概括
复杂的高速公路几何和季节性天气显著影响了碰撞风险. 一个新的模型揭示了非线性效应,改善了山区道路的安全预测.
科学领域:
- 运输工程
- 交通安全
- 统计模型
背景情况:
- 山地高速公路具有复杂的几何形状 (例如,曲曲线),增加了碰撞风险.
- 现有研究使用广泛的分类和年度数据,缺少季节性变化和几何相互作用.
- 动态交通,天气和复杂的道路几何构造非线性时空碰撞效应.
研究的目的:
- 在山区高速公路上开发一个捕捉非线性时空碰撞风险因素的模型.
- 分析道路几何形状,交通流动和天气对碰撞频率的综合影响.
- 通过整合多种数据源来提高事故预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 整合了道路几何,交通运营和环境数据.
- 采用用高斯过程增强的零膨胀负二项式 (ZINB) 模型.
- 进行了非线性时空碰撞频率效应的系统分析.
主要成果:
- 该模型的预测准确度 (RMSE=0.566) 和适合性 (LOOIC=5961.2) 比传统模型更高.
- 在下坡曲线 (56%) 和较高的交通流量 (80.3%每1000辆车/天) 中观察到的重大事故增加.
- 随着温度升高 (每1°C降低-28.8%) 和凸曲线上升 (降低-2%) 的碰撞频率有所下降.
结论:
- 这项研究为分类和建模山区高速公路上的撞车风险提供了一个精细的框架.
- 增强的ZINB-高斯过程模型有效地捕捉了复杂的非线性时空相互作用.
- 这些发现为在具有挑战性的地形上有针对性的交通安全管理提供了关键的见解.
相关概念视频
Design Example: Alignment of a Road Line Using GIS
104
The alignment of a road line using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a critical process in civil engineering, combining advanced technology with practical decision-making. This methodology begins with the collection of geospatial data, including information on land cover, geomorphology, drainage patterns, slope, and contour details. Such data is typically acquired through satellite imagery and GIS tools, offering a comprehensive understanding of the terrain.Once the data is gathered, it...
104
Elevation of Intermediate Points on Vertical Curves
69
Vertical curves are essential in roadway design because they provide smooth transitions between varying roadway grades. Designing vertical curves involves calculating intermediate elevations and identifying the curve's highest or lowest point, which is essential for optimal roadway performance.Intermediate elevations on a vertical curve are determined using the tangent offset method. This method considers the initial elevation at the start of the curve, the grades, and the curve's geometry. The...
69
Introduction to Vertical Curves
158
Vertical curves are parabolic transitions that connect different grades on highways and railroads, ensuring a smooth alignment between back and forward tangents. The back tangent represents the initial grade, while the forward tangent defines the subsequent grade. These curves can be symmetrical, with equal tangent lengths, or nonsymmetrical, with varying lengths. The key points defining a vertical curve include the Point of Vertical Intersection (P.V.I.), where the tangents meet; the Point of...
158
Introduction to Horizontal Curves
231
Horizontal curves are essential in highway and railroad design, ensuring smooth and safe transitions between straight path segments, or tangents. These curves allow vehicles to maintain speed without abrupt changes, minimizing accidents and improving travel efficiency.A horizontal curve is typically defined by its geometric relationship to two tangents that meet at an intersection point (P.I.), where a simple curve is introduced to connect them. The back tangent refers to the initial tangent...
231
Sight Distance in a Vertical Curve
128
Sight distance on vertical curves is critical in roadway design. It ensures drivers can see far enough ahead to identify and respond to hazards effectively. This directly impacts safety, driver comfort, and the overall efficiency of the transportation network.Vertical curves are classified into crest and sag curves based on their geometry. For crest curves, sight distance is determined by the line of sight between a driver's eye and a small object on the road's surface. Design parameters for...
128
Stress Concentrations
374
Stress concentration is when stress intensifies near discontinuities such as holes or abrupt cross-sectional changes in a structural member. This localized stress can often surpass the average stress within the member. The stress distribution in flat bars, either with a circular hole or varying widths connected by fillets, can be determined experimentally using a photoelastic method. The results are based on ratios of geometric parameters like the ratio of the hole's radius to the smaller...
374


