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土地使用和土地覆盖变化:巴西帕拉伊巴的曲线数参数预测
Rivaildo da Silva Ramos Filho1, Felipe Firmino Diniz2, Iana Alexandra Alves Rufino3
1Center of Technology and Natural Resources, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, 58429-900, Paraíba, Brazil. rivaildo.silva@estudante.ufcg.edu.br.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|August 28, 2025
概括
巴西帕拉伊巴的土地使用变化显示,非植被和不透气的区域显著增加. 这种趋势,随着曲线数量 (CN) 的上升,表明洪水风险更高,影响城市和水资源管理战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 地理情况
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 土地使用和土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 是影响地球表面的人类和自然过程的关键指标.
- 对LULCC和相关水文参数进行预测建模对于了解区域环境动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定LULCC的驱动因素,并预测巴西帕拉伊巴的土地覆盖面和曲线数 (CN) 的未来变化.
- 预测2040年的LULCC和CN值,以帮助区域规划和政策制定.
主要方法:
- 使用DINAMICA EGO动态模型与2000-2010年的数据进行LULCC模拟.
- 校准模型以预测整个州的未来LULC场景和CN参数.
- 分析了LULCC的空间模式和预测的CN值.
主要成果:
- 在30年内发现非植被地区的增长趋势和不透气地区的增长17.20%.
- 预计CN值增加,特别是在沿海地区,这表明易受洪水影响.
- 为2040年生成的LULCC地图和模拟的CN值.
结论:
- 预计LULCC和增加的CN值突显了潜在的重大洪水发生和影响,特别是在人口密的沿海地区.
- 对于城市和水资源管理规划而言,LULCC地图和CN模拟提供了至关重要的数据.
- 这项研究解决了巴西帕拉伊巴州有效规划和政策制定的关键信息缺口.
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