在撒哈拉以南非洲感染艾滋病毒的人群中开发和验证具有包容性和成本效益的生存和死亡预测算法:对元分析和病例控制和成本效益研究的协议
Martins Nweke1,2, Julian David Pillay1, Alfred Musekiwa3
1Global Health and Sustainability, Faculty of Health Sciences, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa.
JMIR research protocols
|August 29, 2025
概括
为撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 地区的艾滋病毒感染者开发一个具有成本效益的预后工具至关重要. 本研究旨在根据文化背景和临床相关性创建一个量身定制的模型,以预测SSA的艾滋病毒相关死亡率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 生物统计学
- 健康经济学
背景情况:
- 在撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的艾滋病毒感染者中,早逝是可以预防的,但由于缺乏包容性,成本有效的预后工具而受到阻碍.
- 由于不同的文化动态和高成本的因素,现有的工具往往不适合SSA.
- 需要有系统地根据临床相关性对死亡决定因素进行分层的模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个针对SSA与艾滋病毒相关的预测模型.
- 该模型将纳入特定区域的文化动态,成本效益和临床相关性.
- 改善艾滋病毒感染者 (PLHIV) 早期死亡风险的预后.
主要方法:
- 一项两阶段研究,涉及证据综合 (元分析) 和流行病学/生物统计学/经济范式.
- 在多个数据库中按照PRISMA协议进行系统的文献搜索,包括非洲期刊.
- 使用队列研究的元分析,计算风险指标 (Rw,CMID,PID) 和风险分层的成本影响的预后模型的开发.
主要成果:
- 该研究预计将从2025年10月到2026年9月进行,预计结果将于2026年11月发布.
- 叙述和定量综合将呈现因果关系的指数 (关联的强度,时间性等). ) 的情况.
- 接收器操作特征曲线 (AUC) 下的区域将确定预测算法的最佳临界风险点.
结论:
- 有效的预后是改善SSA早期死亡风险的PLHIV的关键.
- 综合监测,评估和优先治疗目标可以显著影响死亡率.
- 一个具有环境相关性和成本效益的预测工具可以加强干预并挽救生命.
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