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Multidisciplinary Approach to Obesity Management: A Case Report
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美国肥胖负担的变化:一种新的人口层面系统动态方法
Phil McEwan1, Mads Faurby2, Christopher Lübker3
1Health Economics & Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK.
Journal of medical economics
|August 29, 2025
概括
预计到2060年美国成年人肥胖率将达到50.5%, 防止体重增加,特别是从超重到肥胖, 提供了最大的公共健康和经济利益.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 流行病学
- 健康经济学
背景情况:
- 美国成年人中肥胖的发病率超过40%, 预计会进一步恶化.
- 肥胖是一个严重且不断增长的流行病,
研究的目的:
- 开发一个基于人口的动态模型,预测2023年至2060年的美国成年肥胖率.
- 评估肥胖症的综合负担,并评估有针对性的干预措施的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用微分方程在BMI和年龄类别中建模人口动态.
- 使用2020年之前的NHANES数据对模型进行校准,并通过将患病率与相关结果联系起来来计算整体负担.
- 通过降低BMI类别之间的进展率来模拟干预影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2060年,美国成年人肥胖率将达到50.5%,累计的直接医疗费用为20.4万亿美元.
- 预计与肥胖相关的并发症 (ORC) 将增加37%,导致更多的初级保健接触者和住院者.
- 预计与BMI相关的死亡率将上升73%,导致超过3100万例累计死亡,生活质量损失超过161万亿美元.
- 发现减少从超重到I类肥胖的进展产生了最显著的影响,到2060年避免了2500万例,并产生了巨大的成本节约和健康益处.
结论:
- 预防肥胖比治疗现有病例更有益,
- 专注于预防超重转变为肥胖的干预措施对减少未来肥胖患病率及其相关负担具有最大影响.
- 这项研究强调了转向预防肥胖的必要性, 尤其是在年轻人中.
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