尼泊尔道路交通事故的空间分布和集群分析
Roshan Kumar Mahato1,2, Kyaw Min Htike1, Alok Kafle3
1Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand.
PloS one
|August 29, 2025
概括
尼泊尔的道路交通事故 (RTA) 正在增加, 针对性安全干预对于城市,半城市和农村地区来说至关重要,以减少RTA的发生率并提高道路安全.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 运输安全
- 空间流行病学
背景情况:
- 道路交通事故 (RTA) 是全球的主要公共卫生问题,造成死亡,残疾和经济损失.
- 了解RTA的时空趋势对于有效的政策制定和干预策略至关重要.
- 尼泊尔面临越来越多的RTA脆弱性,特别是在城市,半城市和农村地区,
研究的目的:
- 确定和分析2019年至2022年间尼泊尔的RTA发生率.
- 专注于涉及RTA的车辆类型及其空间分布.
- 确定尼泊尔境内的高风险区域和区域集群.
主要方法:
- 分析了所有七个省份和加德满都谷交通警察局的数据,
- 使用量子 GIS (QGIS) 进行数据处理和可视化.
- 用于空间集群识别的全球和本地Moran's I统计和本地空间协会指标 (LISA).
主要成果:
- 确定了涉及RTA的车辆类型的统计学意义上的空间聚类.
- 在加德满都,拉利特普尔和巴克塔普尔等城市中心, 高高 (HH) 集群显示出高事故率.
- 观察到RTA发生率稳步上升,从2019-2020年每10万人口中的63.35增加到2021-2022年的123.05.
结论:
- 尼泊尔的RTA发生率正在增长,
- 非常需要针对地理位置的道路安全干预措施,优先考虑城市和半城市地区.
- 有效的战略必须包括加强执法,对商用车辆和两轮车辆的监管以及基础设施的升级.
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