热带太平洋SST趋势对北极冬季全球和区域循环的强烈影响
Joonsuk M Kang1, Rhidian Thomas2,3, Nick Dunstone4
1Department of the Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, USA.
概括
气候模型难以复制热带太平洋海面温度 (SST) 的趋势. 调整这些趋势可以改善全球循环和区域气候预测,提高模型的可靠性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
- 大气科学
背景情况:
- 在卫星时代的热带太平洋海面温度 (SST) 趋势存在差异.
- 结合的气候模型往往无法准确模拟观察到的类似拉尼娜的SST趋势.
研究的目的:
- 调查热带太平洋SST趋势差异对全球循环趋势的影响.
- 通过限制SST趋势来提高气候模型预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 使用两种方法来限制合模型的SST趋势:调节后置模拟和节奏制造合气候模拟.
- 分析了由此产生的流通趋势反应及其与年度La Niña模式的相似性.
主要成果:
- 限制热带太平洋的SST趋势大大减少了热带热带气体的变暖,更好地与重新分析数据保持一致.
- 在区域平均喷气中观察到适度的极向转移.
- 对美洲,南亚和南非等ENSO敏感地区的表面空气温度和降水趋势的准确性提高.
结论:
- 热带太平洋的SST趋势对于准确的多十年气候模型预测至关重要.
- 解决SST趋势差异可以提高模型与观察到的气候模式和区域气候变化的一致性.
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