在干旱的城市地区使用SHAP增强的堆叠集体学习绘制洪水易感度:吉达的一个案例研究
Bilel Zerouali1, Abdulrazak H Almaliki2, Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos3
1Laboratory of Architecture, Cities and Environment, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Department of Hydraulic, Hassiba Benbouali University of Chlef, B.P. 78C, Ouled Fares, 02180, Algeria.
Journal of environmental management
|August 29, 2025
概括
这项研究使用堆叠的机器学习和可解释的AI开发了沙特阿拉伯吉达的准确洪水易感地图. 该框架有效地确定了数据稀缺的城市环境中的高风险区域.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 地理空间分析
- 人工智能
背景情况:
- 在沙特阿拉伯的吉达等干旱,快速城市化的地区,
- 有限的历史洪水数据和监测系统阻碍了这些地区的有效风险预测.
- 开发准确的洪水易感地图对于城市规划和灾害管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为数据稀缺的城市环境创建一个准确和可解释的洪水易感测绘框架.
- 将先进的机器学习技术与可解释的人工智能相结合,以加强洪水风险评估.
- 为类似地区的洪水风险评估提供可转移和可扩展的解决方案.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种组合模型,将XGBoost,CatBoost和基于Histogram的梯度提升 (HGB) 结合起来.
- 在模型透明度和特征重要性分析中采用了SHapley添加式分析 (SHAP).
- 包括DEM,斜率,流动方向,曲线数,地形指数和LULC在内的地理数据被用作预测指标.
主要成果:
- 堆叠组合模型实现了高预测性能 (AUC = 0.92,精度 = 0.82).
- 地形粗度指数 (TRI),地形位置指数 (TPI) 和距离河流的距离被确定为主要影响因素.
- 该模型绘制了具有非常高 (139平方公里) 和高 (325平方公里) 洪水易感性的重要区域.
结论:
- 用可解释的AI进行堆叠集体学习,在数据受限的环境中提供可靠的洪水易感地图.
- 开发的框架为干旱,城市化地区的洪水风险评估提供了实用和可扩展的方法.
- 创新的验证策略,如与道路数据交叉,可以补充数据稀缺的地区的传统方法.
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