交通冲突观察的时间有多长:使用极端价值理论方法的调查
Lai Zheng1, Jiayi Li1, Wei Wei1
1School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|August 29, 2025
概括
确定交通冲突观察时间对于道路安全至关重要. 本研究引入了一个极端值理论框架,使用GPD和BH-GPD模型,以确定可靠的安全分析的定量样本大小.
科学领域:
- 道路安全工程
- 交通工程
- 统计模型
背景情况:
- 确定足够的交通冲突观察时间是道路安全的一个关键挑战.
- 现有的方法缺乏基于冲突的研究中样本大小的定量方法.
- 标准化交通冲突技术需要可靠的方法来评估观察持续时间.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个基于极端价值理论的框架来确定适当的交通冲突观察时间.
- 建立一个量化方法来评估道路安全分析中的适当样本大小.
- 在这种情况下,比较泛化的帕雷托分布 (GPD) 和贝叶斯层次的GPD (BH_GPD) 模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用大约50小时的高分辨率LiDAR数据从一个信号交叉点.
- 开发了传统的通用帕雷托分布 (GPD) 和贝叶斯层次的GPD (BH_GPD) 模型.
- 使用安全指标,如预期的每年撞车次数和撞车回归水平,以评估样本的充分性.
主要成果:
- 碰撞回归水平比传统的碰撞频率指标更敏感,特别是在低风险场景中.
- 与独立的GPD模型相比,BH_GPD模型通常需要较短的观察时间,并且提供较窄的可信间隔.
- 适当的样本大小从15小时到45小时以上,与冲突率相反相关.
结论:
- 已经建立了一个定量框架来确定适当的交通冲突样本大小.
- 提出的框架利用极端价值理论,增强道路安全分析的稳定性.
- 这项研究有助于标准化交通冲突技术,改善道路安全研究和实践.
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